Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
